Earthquake forecasting:

Studies and experiments related to earthquake prediction began in 1969. When the design and production of this device was completed, for the first time it was installed in the dormitory of Oromieh University (the old Rezaeeyeh). It was expected that up to 30 minutes after hearing the sonic alarm, an earthquake would take place.

After a few days the first alarm went off but there were no signs of an earthquake within the given 30 minute time-span. The alarms went off on the second and third day and once more no sign of earthquakes in nearby vicinity. But three earthquakes happened in Turkey in three consecutive days. Even the thought that the alarms were somehow linked to these earthquakes in Turkey did not cross my mind. It took me a few days to realize that there was a connection. The time-span between each alarm and each earthquake that struck Turkey was about 12 hours. Several other earthquakes that struck Iran, confirmed my assumptions regarding the accuracy of this device. After the device was inspected by the dean of the university and several physics professors, it was transferred to university campus.

Right now, the method used in monitoring changes has been measured using computers. The interval time needed for predicting massive earthquakes has reached to a little more than a week. Depending on the geographical situation, hours before an earthquake strikes special signals are received.

In order to predict earthquakes in terms of size and location, there is a need to create a network with short distances (maximum 100 km).

The budget needed to bring this device to life which includes a small building and telecommunication equipment along with staff expenditures does not come even close to money spent in urban or even rural settings.

It is very much possible for an earthquake to happen at any given time, and we could once again lose the opportunity to do something about it. When an earthquake is predicted, its exact location must be identified. The distance of the devices from one another and the existence of smaller local earthquakes make the prediction about the exact location of the earthquake all the more difficult. An accurate prediction of the exact location of earthquakes using several devices located between 300-1000 km of one another and the effects of natural barriers along with the way different regional layers act make this prediction a difficult task. It seems impossible to alarm vast areas, cities and villages in the predicted diameter of each device.

Human beings differ in many ways. Many face constant fears which in turn has quite a negative impact on them.

It’s both evident and proven by experience that the changes in the prediction factors of an earthquake in the areas near the earthquake canon actually come from places that tend to be further away. 

One of these instances is the earthquake of October 8th, 2006 in northwestern Pakistan. The scope of the changes that were brought about by this earthquake in Jiroft center is greater that the scope felt in the center in Sanandaj.